In the season 4 premiere of Arrow, we got a big-fat juicy fast-forward scene at the end of the episode, showing us Oliver standing over a grave, looking angry and upset. We were given absolutely no clues about who might be in the grave; even Barry Allen showing up (too late to catch the funeral, natch) yielded no specific indication of who might be in the grave, not even if the victim was a man or woman. Fans were left wondering, “Who the heck is in the box?”
Felicity Smoak immediately jumped to the top of many people’s lists for likely suspects. Partially because the show was dropping all kinds of red-herrings about it being her, partially because she’s a fan favorite and those fans were afraid to lose her and partially because of the small segment of viewers that dislike her and/or would prefer Oliver with Laurel hoped that she would die to pave the way for their preferred romance. Arrow leaned on this heavily throughout the first nine episodes of the season, culminating in Felicity being shot and nearly killed by Damien Darhk’s Ghosts.
When Arrow revealed she survived the attack (albeit with spinal cord damage), they also gave us the second flash-forward scene, this time revealing that Felicity was waiting in the limo for Oliver. The executive producers confirmed: Felicity is safe! Most fans were greatly relieved and we saw that the show wasn’t above deliberately misleading us within the context of the story. It became clear that the most compelling clues for who was meeting their maker were going to be far more subtle than most viewers were expecting.
As of now, no one else has been declared safe by the show. But theories are flying fast and furious online (as well as some spoilers, but this posting will focused more on the theories and speculation… rest assured I have seen the spoilers, but they will have no bearing on my speculating here). So let’s dive in and dissect who’s on the block and why they’re suspect and why they might be safe.
John Diggle
Why it could be him: Oliver and Felicity both looked not just greatly upset by the loss of whomever was in the grave, but angry to boot. The loss of their brother in arms, their good friend, would certainly inspire such emotion from the both of them. The loss felt personal and the killing of John Diggle would definitely be considered personal by the both of them. The reactions in the limo felt like the reactions of two people who have lost someone on their team, someone they consider family. If the show wants a big shakeup (which some of the interviews with the powers that be seem to indicate that they do), then this would also definitely tick that box. He hasn’t had a major target on his back so far this season, one of the few characters this is true for. Could be they’re waiting for the “big one”?
Why it can’t be him: Next to Felicity, John Diggle is a major fan favorite. He’s also an Original Team Arrow member, which the show has already shown they respect and value. Diggle has plenty of story left to tell on the show: we haven’t yet seen things with his brother Andy fully play out, he’s a husband and father, there’s some pretty good indication from Legends of Tomorrow that he has another child somewhere down the line… He’s also Oliver’s mentor. He’s the voice of growth and reason to Oliver as he journeys to becoming a fully realized hero. Oliver isn’t done cooking yet, he still needs John Diggle. John Diggle still has story to tell. Also, Felicity didn’t seem quite as upset as Oliver and I doubt that’d be true if it were Diggle.
Thea Queen
Why it could be her: Oliver and Felicity’s reactions could also indicate Thea, complete with Oliver being more wrecked by the loss than Felicity. The tear he shed at the graveside could definitely be for his baby sister. The only other time we’ve really seen him break down on the show was over Thea’s hospital bed last season. She has a target on her back, like all of Team Arrow does.
Why it can’t be her: Thea’s been in mortal danger multiple times by now. Last year, she nearly died and had to be restored with the Lazarus Pit. This season, she nearly died because of the blood lust that was sickening her. It’s safe to say that Thea’s death has been played out. Plus, she has plenty of story left to tell. Not only is her hero arc not quite complete yet (she hasn’t learned how to be a fully evolved hero, she’s still in the process of discovering what being a hero means to her). She has business with her father yet to deal with. She even has a romance with Alex, who is not yet gone from Arrow. She’s also the only remaining family for the show’s title character. It could also be argued that Oliver would have been far more devastated at the grave and in the limo had the victim been his sister. Also: there’s some compelling argument fan theories that the “him” that Oliver needs to kill, from the flash-forward, was in fact Malcolm and not Darhk. And if that’s the case, it’s unlikely he would kill his only remaining child.
Laurel Lance
Why it could be her: The reactions, again, line up. I get a very distinct “team” vibe off of how Oliver and Felicity are reacting in the wake of this loss and Laurel is one of their teammates. Felicity would be both saddened by the loss of her friend and enraged at the murder of one of her team, one of her family. Oliver would feel the loss a bit more keenly, given his history with Laurel. It’s expected he would be more upset by losing Laurel than Felicity was. Laurel also has virtually no story right now. Her only arc for this year involved bringing her sister back with the Lazarus Pit. Instead of playing out consequences with her family and friends for this action, it was brushed aside and forgiven. She has no love interest on the show and, from what I’ve heard, no plans for a love interest in the future. She provides no specific function to the team that Felicity, Diggle, Thea or Oliver cannot already provide. But she’s also a fully evolved hero, secure and strong in her status. The show has been subtle with their hints regarding her, but Quentin’s constant “I don’t know what I’d do if something happened to you/her” remarks are enough to make me wonder.
Why it can’t be her: There’s not much reason it can’t be her, other than some of the fans of the comic book insisting that the Black Canary is too important a character to be killed off (though I would argue that while she might be vital in the comics, we haven’t seen much evidence of that on Arrow). Other than that, it would be a bad blow to Quentin, to lose another daughter. Sure, Sara is alive and well now, but the man has had to suffer her death twice now and to add Laurel to that would be a lot. Then again, show me someone on this show who hasn’t suffered more than their fair share of grief and loss.
Quentin Lance
Why it could be him: Quentin shocked everyone by aligning with Damien Darhk in the early episodes of season 4. It painted quite a vivid target on his back as a result. And when Quentin spoke with Oliver and realized the error of his ways, agreeing to be a double agent for Team Arrow, it seemed like that could only blow up in Quentin’s face, perhaps literally! Quentin has been on the bubble since the end of season 2; it feels like every time I turn around, I’m waiting for him to be killed. Is he living on borrowed time?
Why it can’t be him: For Quentin to truly pay the price for his double dealing with Darhk, it requires him to lose something that isn’t his life. After all, death isn’t a punishment for the dead, it’s a punishment for the living. So if Darhk or anyone else wants to come at Quentin, the best way to do that is to kill someone close to him, like Laurel or Donna. Quentin also has quite a bit of story and he’s just finally gotten his first love interest in the history of the show. He provides a useful link between Team Arrow and the SCPD. He’s the Commissioner Gordon to Oliver’s Batman. The show could replace him, get another police insider, but then we’d have to go through the discovering of the secret identity again. That’s so been done. Also, would Barry show up at the grave for Quentin, much less express regret for missing the funeral?
Donna Smoak
Why it could be her: Felicity was upset in the limo, it’s true. That could have been the anger and upset over her mother being killed. Donna being killed could be the punishment that Quentin has coming his way.
Why it can’t be her: Why would Oliver grieve at the gravesite without Felicity there? Why would he appear more upset than she was? Felicity, also, would have been much more upset than she was in the limo if it was her mother in the grave. The Barry Allen thing also factors in here. Barry loves Felicity, but he doesn’t know Donna from a hole in the ground. (was that a pun?)
Extra Candidates:
Samantha Clayton and/or William Clayton – I think these two are safe. They’ve left town to places unknown (even to Oliver). While Oliver would be definitely upset (moreso for William than Samantha, understandably), I don’t know if Felicity would be. And there’s that lost team member vibe that doesn’t work for it being either of them. I think the show has more story to tell with William, we’ll probably see him at a later point in time. What’s the sense to go through everything with the secret and reveal only to kill the kid and/or mom a couple episodes later?
Malcolm Merlyn – He’s a bad guy. Save for Thea, I doubt anyone would be terribly upset by his passing. Maybe even Thea (she wasn’t too happy with him at the end of 4×15!). Felicity would definitely not care to avenge him and Oliver wouldn’t shed a tear for him in a million years. I’d put a lot more money on Malcolm being the one who killed whomever is in the grave. His villain arc took a steep nosedive recently and I think that trend will continue. If he is the “him” Oliver and Felicity referred to killing in the flash forward the question will be: will Oliver kill him? Or will he find another way?
